Betting Markets Turn Uber-Bullish On Tesla’s Upcoming Q3 2024 Delivery Numbers

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We noted recently that Tesla was on course to record its best quarter yet in China, where a combination of a secular shift towards EVs and Tesla’s demand-stoking bells and whistles have managed to counter any dampening effect from the onslaught of new competition. Additionally, the Cybertruck’s production ramp-up is also expected to boost the company’s quarterly delivery number. Now, as this trend becomes increasingly visible, betting markets are turning demonstrably bullish on Tesla’s upcoming Q3 2024 delivery numbers.

Consider the fact that, as per the bets placed so far on the Kalshi platform, Tesla is expected to report Q3 2024 deliveries of 467,000 units. What’s more, the betting platform is currently awarding a whopping 80 percent probability to the scenario that the EV giant’s upcoming delivery disclosure exceeds 460,000 units.

Meanwhile, Wall Street has currently pegged its consensus estimate for Tesla’s Q3 deliveries at 462,000 units, with the whisper number ranging between 465,000 and 470,000 units. Tesla permabull analyst, Dan Ives, believes that “we could see a 470k+ number on the heels of strong China demand this quarter.”

In contrast, Goldman Sachs’ Mark Delaney had predicted in a dedicated investment note last week that Tesla’s Q3 deliveries would amount to around 460,000 units:

“Based on registration, insurance and third party data for China, Europe and the US quarter to date, we now expect 3Q24 deliveries of ~460K (up 4% qoq and up 6% yoy), down from our prior estimate of ~475K.”

Delaney had gone on to note:

“Regionally we believe that sales have been strong in China, flattish in the US, and weak in Europe on a yoy basis.”

Of course, beyond the upcoming delivery disclosure, investors are currently eyeing the robotaxi reveal event, slated for the 10th of October, with visible enthusiasm. Tesla robotaxi is expected to share the same platform that the EV giant intends to leverage for rolling out its cheaper sub-$30,000 Model 2. For context, do note that Deutsche Bank now sees Tesla’s fleet of robotaxis swelling to 1 million units by 2035, resulting in annual revenues of around $15 billion.