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Tesla Needs To Deliver 516,344 EVs In Q4 2024 To Match Its 2023 Delivery Total

Tesla Needs To Deliver 516,344 EVs In Q4 2024 To Match Its 2023 Delivery Total

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This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Wccftech.com has a disclosure and ethics policy.

Were Tesla’s just-reported delivery figures for the third quarter of 2024 a miss? This question dominated investor chatter throughout today’s morning trading session as Tesla’s quarterly deliveries exceeded (barely) its self-compiled consensus estimate but failed to beat the median estimate from analysts. What’s more, Reuters fueled further confusion by publishing a higher consensus figure that polled a narrower subset of Wall Street analysts. The end result: Tesla ended today in the red by ~3.5 percent even as the Nasdaq 100 recorded a minuscule gain.

As we reported earlier today, Tesla has now disclosed that it delivered 462,890 units in Q3 2024 against a production level of 469,796 units, resulting in an overall increase of 6,906 units to yield a new inventory level of 113,455 units for the quarter.

Do note that Tesla delivered 386,810 units in Q1 2024 and 443,956 units in Q2. Therefore, to match its total deliveries of 1.81 million units in 2023, Tesla will have to deliver a whopping 516,344 units in Q4 2024. This corresponds to a sequential increase of 11.5 percent. For context, Tesla’s latest IR-compiled consensus estimates currently peg its total deliveries for 2024 at 1.781 million units, which corresponds to a Q4 consensus delivery figure of 487,532 units.

Meanwhile, the analyst Gene Munster has chosen to view Tesla’s latest quarterly delivery disclosure in a more positive light, given the preponderance of macro headwinds:

“I have a different view and see the results as a win for the company given they mark a return to growth for the first time in nine months, despite multiple headwinds.”

While the analyst concedes that Tesla’s 7 percent year-over-year increase in deliveries lagged behind Ford’s 12 percent increase in EV sales over the same timeframe, this outperformance becomes quite muted when one considers the fact that Ford’s EV sales in the US are just one-ninth those of Tesla, which allows the law of large numbers to work in Ford’s favor.

Moreover, as per Gene Munster’s calculations, EV subsidies in the UK, Germany, France, and Norway, which collectively account for ~20 percent of Tesla’s total sales, have declined by an average of 35 percent over the past year, resulting in substantial headwinds for an already-besieged industry.

The analyst goes on to add:

“Currently, I expect the $25k model to begin ramping in early 2026, and therefore I’m forecasting 5% year-over-year delivery growth in 2025, compared to the Street’s estimate of 12%. Beyond 2025, growth should accelerate to above 20%.”

Do you think Tesla will be able to match its 2023 delivery figures by the end of 2024? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.

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